ESPN FPI Predicts Tight Outcome in Georgia-Notre Dame Sugar Bowl CFP Clash
In one of the most anticipated matchups of the College Football Playoff, No. 2 Georgia (11-2) will square off against No. 7 Notre Dame (12-1) in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day. Both programs boast storied traditions, and this high-stakes contest promises to add another chapter to their rivalry as they vie for a spot in the national championship game.
Georgia’s Road to the Playoff
The Bulldogs earned their place in the semifinal after a dramatic overtime victory against No. 5 Texas in the SEC Championship Game. That win secured Georgia a first-round bye, giving head coach Kirby Smart and his team extra preparation time. Smart, who has built Georgia into a perennial powerhouse, now has the chance to guide his team to its third national championship game appearance in the last four seasons.
Over the past four years, Georgia has solidified its dominance in college football, capturing back-to-back national titles in 2021 and 2022 while losing only four games during that span. Despite narrowly missing the playoffs last season, the Bulldogs are once again positioned to compete for the ultimate prize.
Notre Dame’s Resurgence Under Marcus Freeman
On the other side, Notre Dame enters the Sugar Bowl riding a 10-game winning streak under second-year head coach Marcus Freeman. This marks the Fighting Irish’s third College Football Playoff appearance but their first under Freeman, who has revitalized the program with a balanced approach on offense and defense.
The Irish earned their spot in the semifinals with a commanding first-round victory over No. 10 Indiana, showcasing their depth and firepower. With momentum firmly on their side, Notre Dame aims to secure its first trip to the national championship game in the playoff era.
A Historic Rivalry Rekindled
This Sugar Bowl clash carries historical significance, as it marks only the fourth meeting between these two programs. Georgia holds a 3-0 advantage in the series, with each game being decided by a single possession. Their most recent encounter was in 2019, when Georgia earned a 23-17 victory in Athens. Notably, the Bulldogs and Irish last faced off in the Sugar Bowl during the 1980 national championship game, which Georgia won 17-10 to claim the title.
Key Factors: Quarterback Play and Ground Game
A major storyline heading into the game is the quarterback disparity between the two teams. Notre Dame has a clear edge in experience with senior quarterback Riley Leonard, a Duke transfer who has excelled in his debut season for the Irish. Leonard has passed for 2,293 yards and 17 touchdowns against six interceptions while adding an impressive 751 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. His dual-threat ability makes him a pivotal figure in Notre Dame’s offense.
Georgia, however, will rely on redshirt sophomore Gunner Stockton following a season-ending injury to two-year starter Carson Beck. Stockton, a former four-star recruit, showcased resilience in the SEC Championship Game, leading a second-half comeback by completing 12-of-16 passes for 71 yards and an interception. While Stockton is talented, his relative inexperience at the collegiate level could be a factor against a disciplined Notre Dame defense.
Both teams will also lean heavily on their ground game to control the line of scrimmage. Georgia’s rushing attack is spearheaded by junior running back Trevor Etienne, a transfer from Florida. Etienne delivered a standout performance in the SEC title game, rushing for 94 yards and two touchdowns.
Notre Dame counters with a dynamic duo at running back in sophomore Jeremiyah Love and junior Jadarian Price. Together, the pair has combined for over 1,700 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns this season, providing the Irish with a balanced and potent offensive attack.
A Tight Prediction
While Georgia is a slight 1-point favorite according to ESPN BET, the network’s Football Power Index (FPI) offers a different outlook. Bill Connelly’s FPI model predicts a narrow 1-point victory for Notre Dame, reflecting just how evenly matched these teams appear on paper.
With both teams boasting strong defensive fronts, dynamic rushing offenses, and capable coaching staffs, the outcome could hinge on small details such as turnovers and red-zone efficiency.
Kickoff Details
The highly anticipated showdown is scheduled for 8:45 p.m. ET on New Year’s Day at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The game will be broadcast live on ABC, promising fans a thrilling start to 2024 as two historic programs battle for a spot in the national championship.
Whether Georgia extends its dominance or Notre Dame takes a step closer to reclaiming its historic glory, this Sugar Bowl promises to deliver a captivating contest.
