This week’s AP Poll is proving to be a strong indicator for Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament prospects, despite their loss to Clemson. The Wildcats remain firmly in the top five, holding steady at No. 5, although they are ranked behind Duke at No. 4 — a perplexing situation considering Kentucky already defeated the Blue Devils earlier this season. While this ranking may seem puzzling and a reminder of the inconsistencies of polls, it does offer a fascinating and hopeful statistic for the Wildcats’ March Madness chances.
John Gasaway, a former ESPN college basketball analyst, once pointed out a compelling trend regarding the AP Poll: since the 2003-04 season, the eventual NCAA Tournament champion has been ranked within the top 12 of the Week Six AP Poll. In fact, 34 out of the last 35 NCAA champions were ranked in the top 12 at this point in the season, with the sole outlier being the 2002-03 Syracuse team. For some reason, Week Six has proven to be an incredibly accurate barometer of the teams poised for championship success, even more so than the polls released just before the start of the NCAA Tournament.
Looking at the top 12 teams in this week’s AP Poll, we see several familiar names:
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- Tennessee
- Auburn
- Iowa State
- Duke
- Kentucky
- Marquette
- Alabama
- Gonzaga
- Florida
- Kansas
- Purdue
- Oregon
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What’s even more telling is the average ranking of the NCAA champion in Week Six: 4.8. This means that, statistically speaking, the No. 5 team—Kentucky in this case—has an excellent chance of winning the national title. If history holds, the Wildcats are firmly in the mix for a deep tournament run.
So, despite the seeming frustration with their current ranking, Kentucky fans can hold on to the optimistic notion that their position at No. 5 could be a sign of even greater things to come. It’s time to start thinking about making plans for San Antonio, where the Final Four will take place. If history is any guide, the Wildcats’ chances of cutting down the nets in April just got a little brighter.