Alabama’s CFP Hopes Hang in the Balance: Could Clemson’s ACC Title Win Doom the Crimson Tide’s Playoff Dreams?
As championship weekend approaches, the Alabama Crimson Tide find themselves in a favorable position to secure a spot in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP). Alabama is ranked No. 11 in the latest CFP rankings, which were released on Tuesday night. Their recent 28-14 victory over the Auburn Tigers in the Iron Bowl, coupled with an unexpected upset loss by the Miami Hurricanes to Syracuse, has kept them in contention for the final at-large playoff berth.
However, there’s a potential scenario that could throw Alabama’s playoff hopes into jeopardy. The looming question is: What happens if the Clemson Tigers, under the guidance of head coach Dabo Swinney, manage to defeat the SMU Mustangs in the ACC Championship Game this Saturday in Charlotte?
At present, SMU is projected to win the ACC title and is ranked No. 8 in the latest CFP standings. If the Mustangs lose to Clemson in a surprising turn of events, the committee will face a tough decision between Alabama—a three-loss team—and SMU—a two-loss team. This possibility, which USA TODAY Sports columnist Paul Myerberg dubs a “doomsday scenario,” could significantly impact the final selections for the playoff.
In this scenario, SMU’s case for a playoff berth would rely on their two losses, both to ranked teams, and a nine-game winning streak that included victories over six bowl-eligible teams. Additionally, they would boast an unbeaten conference record, making a strong argument for inclusion. On the other hand, Alabama’s resume includes a noteworthy win over Georgia, as well as victories over teams like South Carolina, Missouri, and LSU. And of course, being Alabama—one of the sport’s most storied programs—could also sway the selection committee in their favor.
Myerberg contends that, despite SMU’s impressive season, Alabama would likely get the nod from the committee due to their more significant wins and the Crimson Tide’s traditional prominence in college football. He predicts that the 12-team committee, much like the four-team selection committee before it, will give Alabama the benefit of the doubt when it comes down to a head-to-head comparison.
Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt shares a similar view. On his podcast, Klatt expressed confidence that Clemson would beat SMU, ultimately allowing Alabama to hold onto the final playoff spot. Klatt believes that when comparing the two teams, Alabama’s strength of schedule and overall track record would outweigh SMU’s accomplishments, further solidifying the Crimson Tide’s place in the postseason.
Still, there’s a chance that Saturday’s results play out in a way that eliminates the need for such a debate. If SMU manages to hold off Clemson and secure the ACC Championship, the committee’s decision will be made much easier, and Alabama’s playoff hopes would rely on other factors. However, if Clemson pulls off the upset, the committee will face a challenging decision that could stir up controversy.
For the CFP selection committee, the ideal outcome would be for all results to go as expected, avoiding any messy debates between teams like Alabama and SMU. But as college football fans know, anything can happen during championship weekend, and the drama surrounding the final playoff spots is likely to intensify in the coming days.