The New York Jets could shock fans with a significant defensive lineup shift. By investing $7.25 million in Javon Kinlaw, the Jets seemingly solidified his role as a starter. However, this might not be set in stone.
The Jets are in pursuit of a championship. If another player at Kinlaw’s position outperforms him, a change could be on the horizon. One potential candidate is Solomon Thomas, another former San Francisco 49ers first-round pick. Analysts Joe Blewett and Michael Nania from Jets X-Factor believe Thomas outperformed Kinlaw in 2023. Despite earning just $3 million, Thomas could see increased playing time, reducing Kinlaw’s role.
Background and Career Overview
Solomon Thomas
Drafted third overall by the 49ers in 2017, Solomon Thomas was seen as an elite run defender and promising pass rusher. However, concerns about his size and lack of experience persisted. Despite his athletic prowess, Thomas has struggled to meet expectations. Over four seasons with the 49ers, he recorded six sacks, 16 tackles for loss, and 23 quarterback hits. His performance declined after moving from the edge to the interior, particularly in run defense.
Thomas joined the Jets in 2022, but his impact remained limited, with a 5.7% pressure rate and a 47.1 run defense grade. However, his effort and hustle on the field are notable, often making impactful plays and showing superior speed.
Javon Kinlaw
Drafted 14th overall in 2020, Kinlaw entered the NFL with high expectations despite limited pre-draft evaluations. Known for his lateral athleticism and power, Kinlaw struggled with consistency and injuries. In 41 games, he recorded five sacks, seven tackles for loss, and 11 quarterback hits. Although his pressure rate improved to 9.6% in 2023, his run defense grades remained poor.
2023 Playing Time Comparison
In 2023, Thomas played 483 defensive snaps (43% of the Jets’ total), primarily in run situations. Kinlaw, on the other hand, played 476 snaps (44% of the 49ers’ total), mainly as a pass rusher. Both players saw significant time at the 2i technique position.
Run Defense Comparison
Pro Football Focus (PFF) rates both Thomas and Kinlaw poorly as run defenders. Thomas ranked 97th out of 103 qualified interior defensive linemen with a 32.2 run defense grade, while Kinlaw ranked 99th with a 31.3 grade. However, Thomas made more impactful plays near the line of scrimmage and demonstrated superior hustle and speed.
Pass Rush Head-to-Head
Statistically, Kinlaw had a better pressure profile in 2023, but Thomas’s pressures were more impactful. On film, both players showed limitations in beating double-teams and pass-rushing variety. Despite this, Thomas’s speed and mobility allowed him to chase down quarterbacks more effectively.
Potential Impact on the Jets’ Defense
The Jets’ pass rush could be affected by relying on Kinlaw and Thomas. With the departure of Quinton Jefferson and John Franklin-Myers, the team may need to adapt by utilizing more edge rushers on passing downs. This situation also gives undrafted free agent Leonard Taylor a chance to contribute.
Comparing Their Roles
In 2023, Thomas and Kinlaw played similar amounts but in different roles. Given their performance, Thomas appears to be the better player. Despite the pay disparity, Thomas’s impact on the run game and comparable pass-rushing skills suggest he should be considered for more playing time.
Future Snap Distribution
The Jets’ defensive tackle snaps will need to be redistributed in 2024. While Kinlaw’s salary suggests he will see significant playing time, Thomas could still see more than the 36% he played before injuries to Woods and Jefferson. A balanced distribution, possibly around 45% for Kinlaw and 39% for Thomas, could be expected.
What to Expect
The Jets paid Kinlaw $7.25 million to be a starting defensive tackle, and they rarely deviate from their investments. Unless Thomas significantly outperforms Kinlaw, expect Kinlaw to play around 50% of the snaps, with Thomas returning to his pre-injury 36% rate. Jets fans should temper their expectations for Kinlaw based on his 2023 performance.