Report;Packers’ key player AJ Dillon Said something went wrong see more…..
Be The eye test says a guy nicknamed “The Quadfather” and “Quadzilla” who is more known for running through people rather than around them will be more effective when the temperatures drop. The numbers back up that theory, too.
According to TruMedia, AJ Dillon’s offensive EPA per rush in September is -0.22 during his career, which started in 2020 after the Packers drafted him in the second round. In October, it’s a clean zero. In November, -0.01. In December and January, however, Dillon’s effectiveness as a runner improves significantly with numbers in the aforementioned category of 0.23 and 0.08, respectively. His offensive rush success percentage, per TruMedia, ranges from 33 percent to 38.8 percent in September-November. In December and January? Those numbers rise to 53.2 and 56 percent, respectively.
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In Sunday night’s 27-19 upset of the Chiefs at Lambeau Field that brought the Packers back to .500 with a third consecutive win, Dillon ran 18 times for 73 yards. Nothing extraordinary, but good for an efficient 4.1 yards per carry. According to Pro Football Reference, five of Dillon’s runs earned first downs, his second-highest such total of the season. Dillon only had one run for a loss of yardage or no gain and churned out eight runs of five or more yards, including four on the opening drive of the game as Green Bay marched 75 yards over 13 plays in a season-long seven minutes and 47 seconds for a touchdown.
It wasn’t like Dillon had an explosive run that skewed his average, either, as his longest carry went for 10 yards. He was simply efficient consistently, giving the Packers exactly what they needed to extend drives, rest their defense against Patrick Mahomes and Co. and ultimately score the most points Kansas City had allowed all season.
“If you can stay out of your get-back-on-track situations and be in normal ball, you got more opportunities to hand it off and certainly, when he’s getting those extra yards, it allows you to do that and I thought we were doing a pretty good job up front, at least sustaining the line of scrimmage to get him to the line of scrimmage,” head coach Matt LaFleur said of Dillon on Monday. “I just can’t say enough about just what he provided for our team last night.”
Dillon didn’t exactly start the season on the best foot, stumbling and crashing his way through a mediocre first seven games, during which he logged only one single-game offensive EPA per rush number above zero. In the last five games, he has three of them, including Sunday’s stout performance against Kansas City. During training camp, Dillon said he needed to play more “passionate” after being unsatisfied with how he played in 2022. He wanted to play more recklessly, he said, rather than aiming for perfection.
“Let’s look back at when I have been really successful and how I approached the game and yeah, looking back a little bit, looking back at those highlights, going back to what was my mindset when I was in college when I was dominating the ACC, what was that like and trying to just get to that mindset,” Dillon said in July, while adding, “Make defenses feel me. Even though we might be running and there’s only four yards here to get, make it a hard four yards. Make sure the next time running the ball, those defenders feel that, they think about it next time and just kinda deliver the blow a little bit more.”
We didn’t really see that version of Dillon early in the season, but we’ve seen it more lately and certainly did on Sunday night, which is a credit to Dillon and those blocking for him.
“He’s a warrior,” quarterback Jordan Love said. “He’s going to fight through tackles, always make the first guy miss and get all those extra yards. He’s just a warrior.”
LaFleur singled out one run in particular on which he was pleased with how Dillon kept his feet moving to muscle for extra yardage. On a second-and-10 from Kansas City’s 20-yard line on the Packers’ opening drive, Dillon took a shotgun handoff from Love up the gut. He was first hit by defensive tackle Matt Dickerson about two yards past the line of scrimmage, but twisted and kept his feet moving before falling forward for a 6-yard gain.
“May not seem like a lot,” LaFleur said. “But it sets you up for different situations where second-and-short’s a lot more advantageous for an offense than second-and-medium.”
Sure enough, Love hit wideout Dontayvion Wicks for seven yards on the ensuing third-and-4 en route to Green Bay’s opening-drive touchdown. Those are the kinds of contributions the Packers need from Dillon. Sure, his career-long 40-yard run against the Steelers on which he eclipsed 18 miles per hour, according to Next Gen Stats, was nice. But it’s the bruising runs in cold weather that wear teams down and help move the chains that get the people going.
“He wants to get the dirty yards in December running the ball,” wide receiver Romeo Doubs said.
Not only that, but Dillon has made guys miss on checkdowns for first downs in each of the past two weeks, on Sunday doing so early in the third quarter for 14 yards on the first play of an eventual touchdown drive that put the Packers up nine. Dare I say he’s showcased impressive elusiveness and cutting ability in recent weeks, too?
“I think we all can see it and the results kind of speak for themselves,” LaFleur said. “Over the last couple years, he’s been pretty effective later in the season.”
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Dillon has five games remaining on his Packers contract. He’s beloved in Green Bay and has fully embraced the community since he arrived here in 2020. He wants to be a Packer for life, but that may not be his realistic future. At least it didn’t look that way early in the season. Dillon hadn’t proven, and to an extent still hasn’t, that he can be a true feature back. If the Packers want a better No. 2, couldn’t they just draft one early in April and pay him less than what they’d owe Dillon on a new contract?
Dillon isn’t supposed to be the Packers’ feature back. That’s supposed to be Aaron Jones, who has missed the last two games with a knee injury and has only been 100 percent for about two games worth of time this season. Thrusting Dillon into the No. 1 role has, in a way, exposed his inability to be that bell cow. But then he has games like Sunday night’s, during which the numbers aren’t gaudy but he proves he might be more than just a serviceable No. 2 who has endeared himself to fans off the field.
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“That’s exactly what I said the night I got drafted and we had our message for the Green Bay fans. I said that I wanna be somebody who, whether it’s first quarter to overtime, first or fourth down, everybody in the stadium, everybody watching, anybody who’s a Packer fan, teammate, can count on me to get the job done,” Dillon said. “I’m about consistency. I try to be consistent, try to be an even-keeled leader and go out there and do it the right way and sometimes it’s not always pretty, but whatever the team needs from me, whether it’s blocking, running, catching, it don’t matter. I’m gonna try to be that to the best of my ability.”
(Photo: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)
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