Why the 10-1 Eagles are a historic underdog in their NFC Championship rematch with the 49ers
Jalen Hurts is the new NFL MVP favorite after historic Eagles’ comeback win
Eagles join scarce company
It’s the first time in over 50 years that a healthy 10-1 team is a regular-season home underdog
With their wild comeback win over the Buffalo Bills this past Sunday, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles became the first team to start 10-1 in consecutive seasons since Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts in 2005 and 2006.
Nevertheless, Sunday’s NFC Championship Game rematch will be the first time during the regular season since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger that a team with a 10-1 record or better and their healthy regular starting quarterback is a home underdog.
Overall, the Eagles are the fourth team at 10-1 or better to get points at home. The previous three have all taken place this century.
Date
Game
Spread
Result
1/23/05
Patriots (15-2) at Steelers (16-1)
Steelers +3
Patriots-41, Steelers-27
1/1/12
Lions (10-5) at Packers (14-1)
Packers +6.5
Packers-45, Lions-41
1/3/21
Chargers (6-9) at Chiefs (14-1)
Chiefs +3.5
Chargers-38, Chiefs-21
The first game to fit the criteria was an AFC Championship showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots following the 2004 campaign. Heading into the contest, the Steelers had lost just one game all season, while the Pats had lost only two.
Thanks to the gift of hindsight, we all know that Tom Brady and the Patriots were rightfully favored to win the game. At the time, however, it was a bit surprising not to see the Steelers get the nod from the oddsmakers at home.
In the end, New England took a comfortable 41-27 victory and went on to win a third Super Bowl in four years.
The next occasion came in Week 17 of the 2011 regular season when the 14-1 Green Bay Packers hosted the 10-5 Detroit Lions. As a result of already having secured their spot in the playoffs and deciding to rest quarterback Aaron Rodgers for the season’s final game, the Packers were 6.5-point underdogs at Lambeau Field.
The game surprisingly resulted in a sensational shootout between Detroit’s Matthew Stafford and Green Bay backup Matt Flynn, the latter of whom threw for 480 yards and six touchdowns en route to give the Packers a 45-41 victory.
The most recent instance of this rare event came at the end of the 2020 campaign. In another regular-season finale, the 14-1 Kansas City Chiefs hosted the 6-9 Los Angeles Chargers. With the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye locked up, the Chiefs rested nearly the entire team and entered the matchup at Arrowhead as 3.5-point underdogs.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert torched the lesser defensive unit to the tune of 302 passing yards and three touchdowns, rushing for another in a 38-21 win.
Overall, teams under the criteria have posted a 1-2 record for both straight-up and against-the-spread bettors.
The Eagles were initially favored against the 49ers
Initially, the Eagles were, in fact, favored over the 49ers at Lincoln Financial Field this Sunday. The look-ahead numbers for this game posted Philly as a -2.5 favorite on the spread and a -134 favorite on the money line.
However, those numbers have flipped. At the midpoint of the week, updated odds on the major sportsbooks listed San Francisco as a one-point favorite. From there, the money poured in on the 49ers, who are favored by 2.5 to three points depending on where you place your bets.
There are several factors as to why this may be, but ultimately, it comes down to recent performances by both teams and a litany of injuries for Philadelphia.
Despite suffering three consecutive losses earlier in the season, the 49ers have come on strong in recent weeks with three straight victories. Since losing to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8, the Niners have won their last three by an average of 20.7 points. This includes a 34-3 beatdown of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are one of the AFC’s best teams at 8-3.
Week
Opponent
Result
10
at Jacksonville Jaguars
49ers-34, Jaguars-3
11
vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
49ers-27, Buccaneers-14
12
at Seattle Seahawks
49ers-31, Seahawks-13
On the other hand, despite their 10-1 record and some impressive wins over elite teams, Nick Sirianni’s squad has barely squeaked by a few opponents — who currently have losing records — including the Patriots and Commanders. Their lone loss to the Jets wasn’t pretty either.
In addition, over their last four games, they’ve only won by a marginal average of 4.75 points. It seems as if oddsmakers are of the belief that the Eagles are due for a “fraud check.”
Philadelphia has dealt with several significant injuries
Eagles All-Pro offensive tackle Lane Johnson, who missed last week’s game against the Buffalo Bills due to a lingering issue with scar tissue related to an injury sustained last season, says he will play against the 49ers. But it’s hard to believe the four-time Pro Bowler will be 100 percent..
Tight end Dallas Goedert, who injured his forearm during a divisional showdown with the Dallas Cowboys in Week 9, is pushing to return against San Francisco. However, it’s likely he’ll require another week off, and given his average of 5.8 targets per game, his presence will surely be missed.
Furthermore, other key names such as defensive tackles Fletcher Cox and Milton Williams were listed as DNP and LP, respectively, at practice earlier this week. Inside linebacker Zach Cunningham was also listed as a DNP.
And while wideouts A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are expected to play, Philadelphia did feel the need to be cautious enough to have them listed as limited participants.
Overall, the Eagles are a bit banged up right now, to say the least, which comes at an inopportune time as they’ll need all hands on deck if they hope to squash San Francisco.
The Eagles face some potential mismatches against the Niners
Truly, the Eagles vs. the Niners is a “1A vs. 1B” kind of a contest, as both are currently daunting opponents for any NFL team on a weekly basis.
It’s no secret that the 49ers have a devastating defensive unit, and what was already a punishing group became even more emboldened with the midseason addition of Chase Young. San Francisco’s 170 points allowed is the lowest in the league, and their 21 takeaways rank second behind only the Denver Broncos. They also rank in the top 10 in sacks with 33.
With the recent injuries on the offensive line and at the tight end position, the Eagles face some potential matchup problems and could easily struggle against the Niners’ pass rush.
And with several injuries on defense, Philadelphia could also struggle to contain the San Francisco offense, which averages 28.2 points per game. So unless Brock Purdy loses the use of his throwing arm like he did 10 months ago in the NFC title game, the Niners will score some points.
It’s interesting to note that while both teams have scored 310 points, San Francisco has managed to produce the same number of points despite having 70 fewer offensive plays. So, perhaps oddsmakers felt forced to go with the healthier team.